Scenarios for global-warming induced change in the open-ocean environment and selected fisheries of the west coast of Southern Africa

Possible cOlUeqwnces for fISheries in the open-ocean environment off Southern Africa's west coast of four scenarios that may arise as a result of global warming are explored. The four scenarios are increased advection of warm water into the Bengwla region from the north, greater input of warm water from the Agulhas Current to the southern Bengwta region, altered wind stress, and warming of surface waters. Expected outcomes differ according to the scenario adopted, and there is also uncertainty concerning biological responses to environmental change. However, il is shown thaI global warming has the potential dramatically to affect Southern Africa's rock-lobster, purse-seine, bottom-trawl and tuna fisheries, and that there would be important conseqUitnces for the coastal fIShing communities of the region.