Patterns of spread of coral disease in the Florida Keys

Reefs in the Florida Keys are experiencing a dramatic increase in the number of localities and number of species with coral disease. In extensive surveys from Key Largo to Key West in 160 stations at 40 randomly chosen sites, there has been a dramatic increase in (1) the number of locations exhibiting disease (82% of all stations are now affected, a 404% increase over 1996 values), (2) the number of species affected (85% of all species are now affected, a 218% increase over 1996 values), and (3) the rate of coral mortality (the deep fore-reef at Carysfort experienced a 60% reduction of living coral cover during the survey). Two null hypotheses (1) that the incidence of disease has remained constant through time and (2) that the apparent increase in disease is due to a lack of comparable earlier data, are both falsified. Different diseases exhibit different patterns of spread: some diseases (e.g. black band) exhibit low incidence and jump rapidly between sites; other diseases (e.g. white pox) exhibit patchy distributions and increase in frequency at affected sites from one year to the next. The central question of why so many corals are becoming simultaneously susceptible to a host of marine pathogens remains unanswered.[PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]