Modelling the population consequences of age- and sex-related differences in winter mortality in the oystercatcher, Haematopus ostralegus

A modelling approach is used to explore the effect of age and sex differences in oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) winter mortality on population size, population structure and the population response to habitat loss or change. Increasing the mortality of first and second year birds reduced population size, but had very little effect on the proportion of the population that were adults. Increasing female mortality reduced population size and resulted in a male-biased population. A sex bias amongst birds of breeding age meant that there were fewer potential breeding pairs for a given population size, reducing the size of the breeding population and the breeding output. Increasing the mortality of one sex relative to the other reduced population size, even when mean adult mortality rates remained unchanged. Increasing the strength of density-dependent mortality in young birds caused a greater reduction in population size as habitat was lost. Increasing the strength of female density-dependent mortality had the same effect, even though male density-dependent mortality had been correspondingly reduced. Increasing density-independent or density-dependent winter mortality in one sex relative to another also exaggerated the disproportional effect of winter habitat loss on separate breeding subpopulations using the same overwintering area. These results suggest that any study of population dynamics should be aware of both age and sex differences in mortality. Conservationists should be particularly aware of any age or sex differences in diet or habitat use that may result in a differential response to environmental change.