Interannual fluctuations of the stratospheric temperature over the north polar region

The monthly means for the years 1964–1991 of 30 hPa temperatures over the North Pole and averaged over the 70–90°N region are analyzed. A multiple regression model is used to find long-term monthly trends and possible linear associations between these temperatures and the QBO, ENSO, and the 11-yr solar cycle. The model's residuals are examined for detection of other periodic interannual fluctuations in Arctic temperatures. It is found that the interannual variations of temperature at 30 hPa over the Arctic are a superposition of the oscillations due to the QBO, ENSO, the 11-yr solar cycle, and approximate 6-yr periodic fluctuations of unknown origin. The QBO, ENSO, and the solar cycle effects in the Arctic temperature explain about 35% of the total variance of the temperature monthly anomalies. In winter, the QBO, ENSO, and the 11-yr solar cycle signals in the temperature data depend on the phase of the equatorial QBO. The polar vortex seems to be warmer (colder) than normal when the West (East) phase of the equatorial QBO in a period of high solar activity. The monthly temperature trends over the Arctic show seasonal variations with positive trends in February and March. The year-round trends (sum of the monthly trends) are about −0.5 K per decade.