Long-term changes in plankton community structure and productivity in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre: The domain shift hypothesis

Oceanic productivity, fishery yields and the net marine sequestration of atmospheric greenhouse gases are all controlled by the structure and function of planktonic communities. Detailed paleoceanographic studies have documented abrupt changes in these processes over timescales ranging from centuries to millennia. Most of these major shifts in oceanic productivity and biodiversity are attributable to changes in Earth's climate, manifested through large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions. By comparison, contemporary biodiversity and plankton community dynamics are generally considered to be “static”, in part due to the lack of a suitable time frame of reference, and the absence of oceanic data to document ecosystem change over relatively short timescales (decades to centuries). Here we show that the average concentrations of chlorophyll a (chl a) and the estimated rates of primary production in the surface waters of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG) off Hawaii have more than doubled while the concentrations of dissolved silicate and phosphate have decreased during the past three decades. These changes are accompanied by an increase in the concentration of chl b, suggesting a shift in phytoplankton community structure. We hypothesize that these observed ecosystem trends and other related biogeochemical processes in the upper portion of the NPSG are manifestations of plankton community succession in response to climate variations. The hypothesized photosynthetic population “domain shift” toward an ecosystem dominated by prokaryotes has altered nutrient flux pathways and affected food web structure, new and export production processes, and fishery yields. Further stratification of the surface ocean resulting from global warming could lead to even more enhanced selection pressures and additional changes in biogeochemical dynamics.