Understanding trends in Australian alcohol consumption-an age-period-cohort model

Aims To decompose Australian trends in alcohol consumption into their age, period (survey year) and cohort (birth year/generation) components. In particular, we aimed to test whether recent declines in overall consumption have been influenced by reductions in drinking among recently born cohorts. Design Seven cross‐sectional waves of the Australian National Drug Strategy Household Survey (1995–2013). Age, period and cohort effects were estimated using a linear and logistic cross‐classified random‐effects models (CCREMs). Setting Australia Participants A total of 124 440 Australians (69 193 females and 55 257 males), aged 14–79 years. Measurements Whether or not respondents consumed alcohol in the 12 months prior to the survey and, for those who did, the estimated volume of pure alcohol consumed, derived using standard quantity–frequency survey questions. Findings Controlling for age and period effects, there was significant variation in drinking participation and drinking volume by birth cohort. In particular, male cohorts born between the 1965 and 1974 and female cohorts born between 1955 and 1974 reported higher rates of drinking participation (P