Instability of squall-inducing waves, global sea-surface temperature anomalies and climate change in tropical north Africa

An inviscid form of the hydrodynamical equations is solved with enhanced horizontal shear, which is a synoptic feature consistent with stronger African Easterly Jet (AEJ) in Sahelian dry years, for unstable waves generated along the boundary between the two tropospheric air masses in tropical north Africa (i.e. the moist south-westerlies and the dry north-easterlies). Using a two-layer model of the atmosphere in order to correctly simulate the tropospheric synoptic situation in the sub-region, results show that the mode of the waves which is known to be fundamental to the development of West African squall lines is more unstable in dry years. This instability is found to be most-pronounced when the surface of discontinuity between the south-westerlies and the north-easterlies is at 700 mb level. Further, it is shown that in Sahelian dry years, the zone of these unstable waves shifts slightly southwards. This shift causes a deficit in rainfall in West African isohyet bands north of latitude 12 degrees . The persistence of this deficit is linked with the continuous warming, in July, August and September of the 18-year period 1969-1986, of the three oceans (Indian, Pacific and South Atlantic) whose sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies influence rainfall in tropical north Africa. It is shown that anytime these oceans warm up anomalously, the strength of the AEJ is enhanced leading to the climate-change process of: SST anomaly, increased AEJ strength, southward shift of the zone of squall-inducing waves and consequent reduction in total annual rainfall north of latitude 12 degrees in tropical north Africa.