Development of a forecast equation to predict the severity of thunderstorm events in New York State

Forecasters across the country routinely make subjective assessments of convective potential for their forecast area based on the values of various atmospheric parameters and indices. If convection does form, forecasters must decide whether it will be severe or non severe; and, will the main threat from severe thunderstorms be large hail, strong straight line winds, tornadoes, or all three. The values which trigger certain decisions may vary from person to person depending on a forecaster's location and experience. The results may not be consistent. This paper describes the development of an equation that would provide objective statistical guidance for determining convective potential in New York State. Although the equation itself can only be applied in a narrow geographical area, the method used to develop this equation can be applied elsewhere.