Predicting the Risk of Extinction through Hybridization

Natural hybridization threatens a substantial number of plant and animal species with extinction, but extinction risk has been difficult to evaluate in the absence of a quantitative assessment of risk factors. We investigated a number of ecological parameters likely to affect extinction risk, through an individual-based model simulating the life cycle of two hybridizing annual plant species. All parameters tested, ranging from population size to variance in pollen-tube growth rates, affected extinction risk. The sensitivity of each parameter varied dramatically across parameter sets, but, overall, the competitive ability, initial frequency, and selfing rate of the native taxon had the strongest effect on extinction. In addition, prezygotic reproductive barriers had a stronger influence on extinction rates than did postzygotic barriers. A stable hybrid zone was possible only when habitat differentiation was included in the model. When there was no habitat differentiation, either one of the parental species or the hybrids eventually displaced the other two taxa. The simulations demonstrated that hybridization is perhaps the most rapidly acting genetic threat to endangered species, with extinction often taking place in less than five generations. The simulation model was also applied to naturally hybridizing species pairs for which considerable genetic and ecological information is available. The predictions from these "worked examples" are in close agreement with observed outcomes and further suggest that an endemic cordgrass species is threatened by hybridization. These simulations provide guidance concerning the kinds of data required to evaluate extinction risk and possible conservation strategies.