Adventitious match probability for autosomal profiles when primer binding site mutation is possible

Highlights • Investigates the potential for an adventitious match as a result of a PBSM when, for example, a crime profile and person profile that have originated from two different individuals are found to be the same as a result of a PBSM in one of the profiles. • Demonstrated that the effect of PBSMs is to slightly decrease the adventitious match probability from what it would had the same DNA system been used. • This was done by both theory and using simulations. • Concludes that the probability of obtaining an adventitious match between profiles that have originated from two different individuals being caused by a PBSM in one of the individuals is very small.