Land allocation: Agriculture vs. urban development in Israel

► The issue of land allocation in Israel is subject to two main megatrends: (a) the role of the agricultural sector in the Israeli economy and (b) urban development pressures. ► In the framework of this article a group of experts decided which variables need to be managed in anticipation of the expected additional population expansion by the year 2050. Using the SWOT method a panel of experts identified key factors in Israeli agriculture that will influence land allocation decisions. ► The experts had to consider two schematic alternatives: (a) The level of urban pressure based on agricultural land reserves, and (b) the level of urban pressure from intensive building and open spaces. ► The experts preferred alternative would maintain the size of agricultural lands and resist the pressure from urban demand. The role of agriculture in the Israeli economy has been declining and in the years to come the importance of using land for non-agricultural purposes is going to be vital. The role which agriculture will play depends on careful social cost/effectiveness studies of the alternative uses of land. It will be necessary to forecast land use requirements for the expansion of transportation networks, recreation areas and urban development. This paper explores the potential of using scenario planning as a tool for land allocation decisions regarding agricultural usages and urban development in Israel. It highlights the benefits of adopting this practice with the aim to help decision makers and politicians to include scenario thinking in the process of determining land allocation.