Twenty year fitness trends in young adults and incidence of prediabetes and diabetes: the CARDIA study

Aims/hypothesis The prospective association between cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) measured in young adulthood and middle age on development of prediabetes, defined as impaired fasting glucose and/or impaired glucose tolerance, or diabetes by middle age remains unknown. We hypothesised that higher fitness levels would be associated with reduced risk for developing incident prediabetes/diabetes by middle age. Methods Participants were from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study who were free from prediabetes/diabetes at baseline (year 0 [Y0]: 1985–1986). CRF was quantified by treadmill duration (converted to metabolic equivalents [METs]) at Y0, Y7 and Y20 and prediabetes/diabetes status was assessed at Y0, Y7, Y10, Y15, Y20 and Y25. We use an extended Cox model with CRF as the primary time-varying exposure. BMI was included as a time-varying covariate. The outcome was development of either prediabetes or diabetes after Y0. Model 1 included age, race, sex, field centre, CRF and BMI. Model 2 additionally included baseline (Y0) smoking, energy intake, alcohol intake, education, systolic BP, BP medication use and lipid profile. Results Higher fitness was associated with lower risk for developing incident prediabetes/diabetes (difference of 1 MET: HR 0.99898 [95% CI 0.99861, 0.99940], p