Analysis of the effect of various disturbing factors on high-precision forecasts of spacecraft orbits

The necessity of taking many force components disturbing spacecraft (SC) orbits into account is demonstrated for the example of forecasts of GLONASS ephemerides. The disturbances of SCs in high-earth orbits (HEO) and low-earth orbits (LEO) are systematized, and the degree of their effect on SC motion is estimated. Disturbance models are developed that provide essential increases of the accuracy of one-day forecasts of GLONASS and GPS ephemerides. Modeling results are presented that allow, depending on the required accuracy of SC orbit forecasts, the determination of the necessary list of disturbances included in the model.