Delayed onset of the 2002 Indian monsoon

We show that there is a set of dynamical predictors, which facilitate forecasting of a delayed monsoon onset. The main dynamical contributor is the early May propagation of the “bogus onset Intraseasonal Oscillation” which triggers a set of events precluding the climatological monsoon onset. We analyze in detail the 2002 monsoon onset and show that it followed a pattern described in our previous study. We notice that the 2003 monsoon onset followed very similar pattern and was delayed.