Worldwide fluctuations in dengue fever cases related to climate variability
Dengue fever is the most significant mosquito-borne viral disease of humans and is a leading cause of childhood deaths and hospitalizations in many countries. Variations in environmental conditions, especially climatic parameters, affect the dengue viruses and their principal mosquito vector,Aedes a...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Climate research 2003-10, Vol.25 (1), p.85-94 |
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| creator | Hopp, Marianne J. Foley, Jonathan A. |
| description | Dengue fever is the most significant mosquito-borne viral disease of humans and is a leading cause of childhood deaths and hospitalizations in many countries. Variations in environmental conditions, especially climatic parameters, affect the dengue viruses and their principal mosquito vector,Aedes aegypti, but few studies have attempted to quantify these relationships at the global scale. Here we use a numerical model to simulate the response ofAe. aegyptito observed climatic variations from 1958 to 1995 and to examine how modelledAe. aegyptipopulations may be related to dengue and DHF cases worldwide. We find that variations in climate can induce large variations in modelledAe. aegyptipopulations at the global scale. Furthermore, these climate-induced variations in modelledAe. aegyptipopulations are strongly correlated to reported historical dengue/DHF cases, especially in Central America and Southeast Asia. These results suggest that potential dengue caseloads could be anticipated using seasonal climate forecasts to drive the mosquito model, thus providing a useful tool in public health management. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.3354/cr025085 |
| format | Article |
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Variations in environmental conditions, especially climatic parameters, affect the dengue viruses and their principal mosquito vector,Aedes aegypti, but few studies have attempted to quantify these relationships at the global scale. Here we use a numerical model to simulate the response ofAe. aegyptito observed climatic variations from 1958 to 1995 and to examine how modelledAe. aegyptipopulations may be related to dengue and DHF cases worldwide. We find that variations in climate can induce large variations in modelledAe. aegyptipopulations at the global scale. Furthermore, these climate-induced variations in modelledAe. aegyptipopulations are strongly correlated to reported historical dengue/DHF cases, especially in Central America and Southeast Asia. These results suggest that potential dengue caseloads could be anticipated using seasonal climate forecasts to drive the mosquito model, thus providing a useful tool in public health management.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0936-577X</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1616-1572</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.3354/cr025085</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Inter-Research</publisher><subject>Aedes aegypti ; Caseloads ; Climate change ; Correlation coefficients ; Correlations ; Culicidae ; Datasets ; Dengue ; Global climate models ; Modeling ; Mosquitos ; Viruses</subject><ispartof>Climate research, 2003-10, Vol.25 (1), p.85-94</ispartof><rights>Inter-Research 2003</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c378t-8daa64ec0db2acd4d68b12dcc650d5945afa48fe010492c5bb52ba9d83e064383</citedby></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/24868387$$EPDF$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/24868387$$EHTML$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,803,3759,27924,27925,58017,58250</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Hopp, Marianne J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Foley, Jonathan A.</creatorcontrib><title>Worldwide fluctuations in dengue fever cases related to climate variability</title><title>Climate research</title><description>Dengue fever is the most significant mosquito-borne viral disease of humans and is a leading cause of childhood deaths and hospitalizations in many countries. Variations in environmental conditions, especially climatic parameters, affect the dengue viruses and their principal mosquito vector,Aedes aegypti, but few studies have attempted to quantify these relationships at the global scale. Here we use a numerical model to simulate the response ofAe. aegyptito observed climatic variations from 1958 to 1995 and to examine how modelledAe. aegyptipopulations may be related to dengue and DHF cases worldwide. We find that variations in climate can induce large variations in modelledAe. aegyptipopulations at the global scale. Furthermore, these climate-induced variations in modelledAe. aegyptipopulations are strongly correlated to reported historical dengue/DHF cases, especially in Central America and Southeast Asia. These results suggest that potential dengue caseloads could be anticipated using seasonal climate forecasts to drive the mosquito model, thus providing a useful tool in public health management.</description><subject>Aedes aegypti</subject><subject>Caseloads</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Correlation coefficients</subject><subject>Correlations</subject><subject>Culicidae</subject><subject>Datasets</subject><subject>Dengue</subject><subject>Global climate models</subject><subject>Modeling</subject><subject>Mosquitos</subject><subject>Viruses</subject><issn>0936-577X</issn><issn>1616-1572</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2003</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNo90E1LxDAQBuAgCtZV8A8IOYmXar6bHmXxCxe8KHoraTKVLNl2TdKV_fd2WfU0w_DwMrwInVNyzbkUNzYSJomWB6igiqqSyoodooLUXJWyqj6O0UlKS0II0xUp0PP7EIP79g5wF0abR5P90Cfse-yg_xynM2wgYmsSJBwhmAwO5wHb4FfTjjcmetP64PP2FB11JiQ4-50z9HZ_9zp_LBcvD0_z20VpeaVzqZ0xSoAlrmXGOuGUbilz1ipJnKyFNJ0RugNCiaiZlW0rWWtqpzkQJbjmM3S5z13H4WuElJuVTxZCMD0MY2qoJoIzsYNXe2jjkFKErlnH6eu4bShpdm01f21N9GJPlykP8d9NKUpzXfEfU3Vnpw</recordid><startdate>20031008</startdate><enddate>20031008</enddate><creator>Hopp, Marianne J.</creator><creator>Foley, Jonathan A.</creator><general>Inter-Research</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7SS</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7U9</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>KL.</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20031008</creationdate><title>Worldwide fluctuations in dengue fever cases related to climate variability</title><author>Hopp, Marianne J. ; Foley, Jonathan A.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c378t-8daa64ec0db2acd4d68b12dcc650d5945afa48fe010492c5bb52ba9d83e064383</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2003</creationdate><topic>Aedes aegypti</topic><topic>Caseloads</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Correlation coefficients</topic><topic>Correlations</topic><topic>Culicidae</topic><topic>Datasets</topic><topic>Dengue</topic><topic>Global climate models</topic><topic>Modeling</topic><topic>Mosquitos</topic><topic>Viruses</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Hopp, Marianne J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Foley, Jonathan A.</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Entomology Abstracts (Full archive)</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Virology and AIDS Abstracts</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><jtitle>Climate research</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Hopp, Marianne J.</au><au>Foley, Jonathan A.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Worldwide fluctuations in dengue fever cases related to climate variability</atitle><jtitle>Climate research</jtitle><date>2003-10-08</date><risdate>2003</risdate><volume>25</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>85</spage><epage>94</epage><pages>85-94</pages><issn>0936-577X</issn><eissn>1616-1572</eissn><abstract>Dengue fever is the most significant mosquito-borne viral disease of humans and is a leading cause of childhood deaths and hospitalizations in many countries. Variations in environmental conditions, especially climatic parameters, affect the dengue viruses and their principal mosquito vector,Aedes aegypti, but few studies have attempted to quantify these relationships at the global scale. Here we use a numerical model to simulate the response ofAe. aegyptito observed climatic variations from 1958 to 1995 and to examine how modelledAe. aegyptipopulations may be related to dengue and DHF cases worldwide. We find that variations in climate can induce large variations in modelledAe. aegyptipopulations at the global scale. Furthermore, these climate-induced variations in modelledAe. aegyptipopulations are strongly correlated to reported historical dengue/DHF cases, especially in Central America and Southeast Asia. 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| ispartof | Climate research, 2003-10, Vol.25 (1), p.85-94 |
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| source | Inter-Research; JSTOR Archive Collection A-Z Listing; EZB-FREE-00999 freely available EZB journals; Alma/SFX Local Collection |
| subjects | Aedes aegypti Caseloads Climate change Correlation coefficients Correlations Culicidae Datasets Dengue Global climate models Modeling Mosquitos Viruses |
| title | Worldwide fluctuations in dengue fever cases related to climate variability |
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