Worldwide fluctuations in dengue fever cases related to climate variability

Dengue fever is the most significant mosquito-borne viral disease of humans and is a leading cause of childhood deaths and hospitalizations in many countries. Variations in environmental conditions, especially climatic parameters, affect the dengue viruses and their principal mosquito vector,Aedes aegypti, but few studies have attempted to quantify these relationships at the global scale. Here we use a numerical model to simulate the response ofAe. aegyptito observed climatic variations from 1958 to 1995 and to examine how modelledAe. aegyptipopulations may be related to dengue and DHF cases worldwide. We find that variations in climate can induce large variations in modelledAe. aegyptipopulations at the global scale. Furthermore, these climate-induced variations in modelledAe. aegyptipopulations are strongly correlated to reported historical dengue/DHF cases, especially in Central America and Southeast Asia. These results suggest that potential dengue caseloads could be anticipated using seasonal climate forecasts to drive the mosquito model, thus providing a useful tool in public health management.