Using dynamic sustainability indicators to assess environmental policy measures in Biosphere Reserves

•Effects of eight environmental measures proposed by the Action Plan are quantified.•Ten sustainability indicators, integrated into a dynamic model, are used.•Measures proposed by the Biosphere Reserve exceed four sustainability thresholds.•Some trade-offs among key environmental objectives are identified. The assessment of different policy options represents a major tool for decision-makers in Biosphere Reserves, to develop more-resilient strategies for sustainable development and to visualise unintended consequences of these policies. In this work we analyse eight measures proposed by different agents in order to meet the main objectives of environmental sustainability, included in the Action Plan of the Fuerteventura Biosphere Reserve (Spain). We quantified the effects of these measures in terms of the sustainability thresholds of 10 environmental indicators, also proposed by the Action Plan, which was integrated in the Fuerteventura Biosphere Reserve dynamic model. Their behaviours under these measures allow determination of whether the objectives will be met in the period 2012–2025. Although some indicators would improve under these measures, fitting certain objectives, some negative effects on other indicators confirm the existence of trade-offs among these objectives. For instance, grazing limitation would improve the proportion of high-quality vegetation but would negatively affect the Egyptian vulture population, which would even fall below its sustainability threshold. The definition of thresholds for each indicator allows decision-makers to establish a way to prioritise among the eight measures analysed. The results show that these measures are insufficient to meet the sustainability thresholds of four indicators (the landscape indicator, the proportion of renewable energy, the per capita primary energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions). Focusing on the remaining six indicators and following the rule “Threshold out, measure out”, seven out of the eight measures would exceed some thresholds and should be avoided. Only one option, aimed at growing fodder to feed cattle on restored traditional agricultural lands, would not exceed any of these thresholds. However, this measure also presents certain negative effects regarding indicators related to flagship species (the houbara habitat and the Egyptian vulture population), which would require compensation measures.