Disproportionate trends in ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction: projections through 2025 and a literature review

Background Medial ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) injuries of the elbow that require surgical management are uncommon. There is growing evidence, however, suggesting that the incidence of UCL reconstruction (UCLR) procedures is rapidly increasing. We sought to quantify the incidence of age-related trends for UCLR from 2003 to 2014 and subsequently to project future trends through 2025. We hypothesized that as the total number of UCLRs performed increased, a disproportionate incidence among younger patients would be observed. Methods New York State's Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System database was queried from 2003 to 2014 to identify individuals between 10 and 40 years old undergoing UCLR. Poisson regression was used to develop future projections for UCLR and New York State population through 2025, and incidence estimates per 100,000 people were calculated. Results In New York State between 2003 and 2014, there were 890 patients who underwent UCLR, with average annual incidence per 100,000 people equaling 6.3 ± 2.8 for ages 15 to 19 years, significantly greater than for all other age groups ( P