Risk factors for recurrence after surgery in non‐metastatic RCC with thrombus: a contemporary multicentre analysis

Objective To determine the predictors of post‐surgical recurrence for patients with non‐metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and venous thrombus. Methods Records from consecutive patients with non‐metastatic RCC with tumour thrombus, treated surgically between 2000 and 2012 at one of three centres, were reviewed. Univariable and multivariable analysis were used to evaluate the association of risk factors for post‐surgical recurrence. Results A total of 465 patients with non‐metastatic RCC were identified, including patients with thrombus present in the renal vein (257 patients, 55.3%), infrahepatic inferior vena cava (IVC; 144 patients, 31.0%) and suprahepatic IVC (64 patients, 13.8%). The median (interquartile range) follow‐up was 28.3 (12.2–56.4) months, with metastatic RCC developing in 188 patients (40.5%). Independent predictors of recurrence included: body mass index ≤20 kg/m2 (hazard ratio [HR] 2.66; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.29–5.49), low preoperative haemoglobin (HR 1.54; 95% CI 1.07–2.20), perinephric fat invasion (HR 1.51; 95% CI 1.09–2.10), IVC thrombus height (HR 2.64; 95% CI 1.47–4.74), tumour diameter (HR 1.04 95% CI 1.00–1.09), nuclear grade (HR 1.56 95% CI 1.12–2.15) and non‐clear‐cell histology (HR 2.13; 95% CI 1.30–3.50). Independently predictive variables were used to create a recurrence model for three risk groups based on 0, 1–2, or >2 risk factors, respectively. The 5‐year recurrence‐free survival rate was significantly different in patients with favourable‐risk (79.1%) compared with intermediate‐ (55.1%) or high‐risk (22.1%) disease (P < 0.001). Conclusions Seven risk factors for recurrence were identified for patients with non‐metastatic RCC with thrombus, which can be used to select patients who may benefit from increased surveillance or adjuvant therapy clinical trials.