Projection of end-of-life vehicle (ELV) population at provincial level of China and analysis on the gap between the future requirements and the current situation of ELV treatment in China

The paper describes a model for projecting the ELV population in 31 province-level regions of China in 2015, 2017, and 2020 under three scenarios, and compares the projection results with the current distribution and capacity of qualified ELV processors in China. Historical data on the population, GDP and vehicle scrap rates are combined to model ELVs. The development in vehicle ownership is modeled by a dynamic Gompertz function. We acquire a model for the changing trend of the vehicle scrap rate as motorization improves, using Japanese historical data of over 60 years. We recalculate the parameters of the model using Chinese historical data collected over a decade when applying the model to China. The paper not only presents a baseline projection of the ELV population in province-level regions of China at different levels of motorization, but also identifies the gap between the future requirements and the current situation of ELV treatment in China.