The future of copper in China—A perspective based on analysis of copper flows and stocks

This study attempts to speculate on the future of copper metabolism in China based on dynamic substance flow analysis. Based on tremendous growth of copper consumption over the past 63years, China will depict a substantially increasing trend of copper in-use stocks for the next 30years. The highest peak will be possibly achieved in 2050, with the maximum ranging between 163Mt and 171Mt. After that, total stocks are expected to slowly decline 147–154Mt by the year 2080. Owing to the increasing demand of in-use stocks, China will continue to have a profound impact on global copper consumption with its high import dependence until around 2020, and the peak demand for imported copper are expected to approach 5.5Mt/year. Thereafter, old scrap generated by domestic society will occupy an increasingly important role in copper supply. In around 2060, approximately 80% of copper resources could come from domestic recycling of old scrap, implying a major shift from primary production to secondary production. With regard to the effect of lifetime distribution uncertainties in different end-use sectors of copper stocks on the predict results, uncertainty evaluation was performed and found the model was relatively robust to these changes. [Display omitted] •The highest peak of copper in-use stocks will be possibly achieved around 2045.•Chinese copper industry will highly depend on imported copper until around 2020.•Since 2060, the net import reliance will descend to 20% or lower.