Recurrence intervals of spatially simulated hydrologic metrics for restoration of Cape Sable seaside sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis) habitat

Marl prairie, a diverse graminoid-dominated freshwater vegetation community in the Florida Everglades, provides a specialized niche for the federally endangered Cape Sable seaside sparrow (CSSS). This paper describes a regional habitat suitability modeling approach to evaluating how changes in management from Everglades restoration may affect the CSSS. The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Marl Prairie Indicator (CSSSMarlPrairie) is a spatially explicit model that integrates frequency (return periods) of target hydrologic conditions to simulate the anticipated response of marl prairie CSSS habitats to fluxing hydropatterns resulting from restoration projects, water management operations, and climatic change. The model integrates CSSS field survey data with the hydrologic targets at the resolution of the hydrologic simulation model (in this case, the Regional Simulation Model). The application of return periods for hydrologic events provides a novel approach for simulation of anticipated marl prairie responses in the southern Everglades and is readily applicable to evaluating targets of modeled wetland restoration scenarios elsewhere. CSSSMarlPrairie is intended to be used for decision support, in association with a suite of ecological models for additional species of management concern, to facilitate planning of ecosystem restoration projects such as those in the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan and recovery of the marl prairie habitats of the CSSS. A tentatively selected restoration plan for the central Everglades is projected to have mostly minor overall impacts to marl prairie CSSS habitats. Local substantial habitat shifts in and adjacent to designated habitat boundaries have been identified, however, that warrant management consideration.