Estimating greenhouse gas emissions from future Amazonian hydroelectric reservoirs

Brazil plans to meet the majority of its growing electricity demand with new hydropower plants located in the Amazon basin. However, large hydropower plants located in tropical forested regions may lead to significant carbon dioxide and methane emission. Currently, no predictive models exist to estimate the greenhouse gas emissions before the reservoir is built. This paper presents two different approaches to investigate the future carbon balance of eighteen new reservoirs in the Amazon. The first approach is based on a degradation model of flooded carbon stock, while the second approach is based on flux data measured in Amazonian rivers and reservoirs. The models rely on a Monte Carlo simulation framework to represent the balance of the greenhouse gases into the atmosphere that results when land and river are converted into a reservoir. Further, we investigate the role of the residence time stratification in the carbon emissions estimate. Our results imply that two factors contribute to reducing overall emissions from these reservoirs: high energy densities reservoirs, i.e., the ratio between the installed capacity and flooded area, and vegetation clearing. While the models' uncertainties are high, we show that a robust treatment of uncertainty can effectively indicate whether a reservoir in the Amazon will result in larger greenhouse gas emissions when compared to other electricity sources.