Climate change and temperature rise: Implications on food- and water-borne diseases

This study attempts to quantify climate-induced increases in morbidity rates associated with food- and water-borne illnesses in the context of an urban coastal city, taking Beirut-Lebanon as a study area. A Poisson generalized linear model was developed to assess the impacts of temperature on the morbidity rate. The model was used with four climatic scenarios to simulate a broad spectrum of driving forces and potential social, economic and technologic evolutions. The correlation established in this study exhibits a decrease in the number of illnesses with increasing temperature until reaching a threshold of 19.2°C, beyond which the number of morbidity cases increases with temperature. By 2050, the results show a substantial increase in food- and water-borne related morbidity of 16 to 28% that can reach up to 42% by the end of the century under A1FI (fossil fuel intensive development) or can be reversed to ~0% under B1 (lowest emissions trajectory), highlighting the need for early mitigation and adaptation measures. ► Prediction of climate-induced increase in food- and water-borne morbidity in a semi-arid Eastern Mediterranean coastal city. ► Number of disease cases increases with temperature beyond a threshold of 19.2°C. ► Expected increase in morbidity of 16 to 28% by year 2050. ► Up to 42% increase in morbidity anticipated by the end of the century.