State propagation in an uncertain asteroid gravity field

Various spacecraft have been and will be sent to asteroids to characterize them. Generally, an asteroid's gravity field is very irregular and not accurately known when compared to the gravity field of a major planet, Earth in particular. It has been well studied that the irregularity significantly affects the trajectory of an orbiting spacecraft, and causes it to impact or to escape from the asteroid. Complementary to that, this paper focuses on the influence of the limited knowledge of this gravity field on the evolution of the spacecraft's orbit. It develops a general method by which this influence can be quantified. This method comprises specific Monte Carlo simulations with a discrete set of low-altitude orbits, taking into account the uncertainties in the gravity-field parameters. For illustration purposes, it is applied to two different asteroids. Already after three revolutions, the gravity-field uncertainties propagate to significant position uncertainties; this specifically holds for prograde orbits, and around the smaller asteroid. Applying this robust and accurate method helps mission designers and planners to assess the risk posed by gravity uncertainties, and take appropriate measures such as choosing the most favorable orbital geometries and/or lowering the orbit more slowly. •The influence of the limited knowledge of an asteroid's gravity field is analyzed.•We develop a robust method that quantifies the influence on a spacecraft's orbit.•It comprises Monte Carlo simulations with a discrete set of low-altitude orbits.•Strongly retrograde orbits are less influenced by gravity uncertainties.•This method helps mission designers to assess the risk posed by gravity uncertainties.