An exploratory analysis of occupational accidents and risks from nuclear reactors in India

•Undertakes modelling of occupational accidents from nuclear power plants of India.•Analyses the pattern of severity, frequency of accidents in nuclear power plants of India.•Econometric projections of fatality, severity rates with uncertainty limits are done.•Likelihood of rise in fatal accidents is indicated in the absence of additional incremental improvement in safety culture.•A need for continuous step up in policy interventions, safety culture for tackling nuclear accidents is required. Modeling analysis of rare events like occupational accidents from nuclear power plants are crucial to understand potential risks. India is poised for a major expansion of civil nuclear energy in the coming decades; such an analysis with this background becomes more important. With this background, this paper explores the pattern of the historical data on severity and frequency of accidents in the select nuclear power plants of India. Based on the historical trend, econometric projections have been undertaken on the estimates of fatality, severity rates within the different uncertainty limits. Results of the projection exercise seem to indicate that there is a probable likelihood of a rise in fatal accidents in nuclear power plants in the absence of incremental safety culture. Further, through a downscaled analysis of global nuclear accidents, the severity and frequency rates of accidents for the Indian nuclear power plants are estimated. Overall, appreciative of the fact that there has not been many major accidents in the past, the results however communicate there is a need to continuously step up policy interventions and safety culture to tackle fatal accidents in nuclear power plants of India.