CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTREME EVENTS: VULNERABILITY OF ENERGY SYSTEMS IN CUBA

Cuba is located in the Caribbean Sea to the south of Florida (United Stated of America). Its geographic characteristic, lengthened and narrow, makes it especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise and extreme weather. Extreme events affect all economic sectors, including the energy sector. Depending on the nature of the event, some energy sources may be more adversely affected than others. The projected energy supply scenarios for Cuba foresee development of renewable energy sources up to their maximum potential and also nuclear energy towards end of the study period. Despite this, the energy sector will remain dominated by fossil fuels. Two scenarios, a Business as usual (or reference) and a GHG mitigation were assessed. In the GHG mitigation scenario the expected installed electricity capacity mix in 2030 will be: 62% fossil fuels, 20% wind, 8% biomass, 6% hydro and 4% nuclear The study carried out an analysis of the vulnerability of these energy sources to the climate change and extreme events, and how climate change and climatic predictions should be taken into account in the country energy planning. A model was developed, based on available data, to identify the most relevant parameters and determine their relevance for the different energy sources and types of climate risk. Pollutant emissions were also assessed, pointing out the influence of the possible different alternatives.