Optimization of economic policies and investment projects using a fuzzy logic based cost-effectiveness model of coral reef quality: empirical results for Montego Bay, Jamaica

For effective mitigation of human impacts, quantitative models are required that facilitate a comprehensive analysis of the effects of human activity on reefs. Fuzzy logic procedures generate a complex dose-response surface that models the relationships among coral abundance and various inputs (e.g., physical damage, sedimentation, nutrient influx), within the context of the abiotic marine environment. This is linked to a nonlinear economic structure incorporating technical interventions (e.g., pollution treatment) and policy interventions (e.g., taxation) in eight economic sectors. Optimization provides insights into the most cost-effective means for protecting coral reefs under different reef quality targets. The research demonstrates that: (1) it is feasible to use fuzzy logic to model complex interactions in coral reef ecosystems; and, (2) conventional economic procedures for modeling cost-effectiveness can result in sub-optimal policy choices when applied to complex systems such as coral reefs. In Montego Bay, Jamaica, up to a 20% increase in coral abundance may be achievable through using appropriate policy measures having a present value cost of US$153 million over 25 years; a 10% increase is achievable at a cost of US$12 million.