An Index of Interannual Precipitation Variability in the Core of the North American Monsoon Region

Seasonal precipitation anomalies associated with the continental North American monsoon system are characterized using a land-based dataset derived from in situ observations across the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. Coherent regions of interannual continental precipitation variability are derived from principal component analysis, after defining separate “early” and “late” summer monsoon seasons. The gravest mode of late-season interannual variability captures precipitation anomalies in the core of the continental monsoon domain. A simple spatial average is developed as an index of this core variability. The seasonal separation allows examination of persistence of precipitation anomalies as an indicator of practical late-season predictability. Possible influences of large-scale oceanic interannual fluctuations [ENSO and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)] on core index precipitation anomalies are also considered. The core precipitation index exhibits considerably more early-to-late-season persistence than an ocean-centered precipitation index. Implications of these results for monthly/seasonal predictability of warm-season precipitation are discussed.