Influence of temperature change on plant tourism in Japan

Viewing and enjoying seasonal events of plants such as flowering and the development of fall leaf coloration provide both nonmaterial and economic benefits to people. Thus, these plant phenological events have value as a tourism resource. Since abnormal timing of these events caused by temperature change may decrease the number of tourists, some stakeholders have learned that plant tourism may need to adapt to climate change. To clarify the influence of air temperature condition on autumn plant tourism in Japan, we investigated the correlations among the flowering date of Lycoris radiata (red spider lily), temperature, the start date of the period when the local railway company increases the number of trains that stop the station closest to a park where the lily is a key attraction, and the total number of tourists during the flowering period of L. radiata; we used data at a park in central Japan as a case study. We found significant positive correlations between the start date of flowering and the air temperatures in late August and early September. The start date for the special trains, which was generally announced before late August, tended not to match the start date of the flowering period, and this mismatch might have decreased the number of tourists at the park. To evaluate the influence of temperature condition on ecosystem services such as plant tourism, we should integrate scientific observations (e.g., the timing of plant phenological events and meteorological data) with social observations (e.g., consumer travel and tourism behavior). In addition, we should analyze the relationships between these two types of data (e.g., by means of data mining) to plan how to adapt tourism activities to temperature change.