Whose expectations augment the Phillips curve?

This letter uses consumer survey data to estimate expectations-augmented Phillips curves with inflation expectations disaggregated by socioeconomic and demographic groups. The inflation expectations of high-income, college-educated, male, and working-age people play a larger role in inflation dynami...

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Veröffentlicht in:Economics letters 2015-11, Vol.136, p.35-38
1. Verfasser: Binder, Carola Conces
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:This letter uses consumer survey data to estimate expectations-augmented Phillips curves with inflation expectations disaggregated by socioeconomic and demographic groups. The inflation expectations of high-income, college-educated, male, and working-age people play a larger role in inflation dynamics than do the expectations of other groups of consumers or of professional forecasters. •Policymakers should monitor disaggregated survey data when analyzing inflation dynamics.•Different demographic groups’ expectations have varying significance in the Phillips curve.•High-income, highly-educated males’ expectations have greatest weight in the Phillips curve.
ISSN:0165-1765
1873-7374
DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2015.08.013