4D trajectory estimation based on nominal flight profile extraction and airway meteorological forecast revision

To address the problem of high accuracy strategic four-dimensional (4D) trajectory estimation for air traffic control automation systems, we proposed a method for extracting the nominal flight profile and revising airway meteorological forecasts. First, for extracting flight intention from historical Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR) data, a Dynamic Space Warping (DSW) algorithm is applied to measure the distance between two flight altitude profiles, where the nominal flight altitude profile is regarded as that with the DSW distance nearest to others. To eliminate the influence of meteorological factors, ground speed calculation is combined with the CAS/TAS conversion model to extract the nominal flight airspeed profile. By considering the meteorological forecast error from GRIdded Binary (GRIB) data, Cressman interpolation is employed to revise the original forecasts from GRIB data combined with observations from new AMDAR data relayed by another reference aircraft, which can be used for strategic 4D trajectory estimation for object aircraft. We present a case study to demonstrate that the nominal flight profile obtained reflects flight intention and it eliminates the influence of meteorological factors, while the airway meteorological model provides more accurate meteorological forecasts for strategic 4D trajectory estimation.