Deadly Violence in the Heartland: Comparing Homicide Patterns in Nonmetropolitan and Metropolitan Counties

In the study of homicide, one common research finding is the strong association between urbanization and homicide rates. The strength of the association between urbanism and homicide rates should have led to a large body of research comparing rural and urban homicide, but it has not. This is an exploratory study using the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports data on homicide and the FBI’s Supplemental Homicide Reports merged with data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census to examine predictors of nonmetropolitan and metropolitan homicide rates and to consider the implications of these findings. Although homicides display some general patterns across the United States, rural-urban differences modify the typical attributes of homicide incidents as well as the community dynamics of homicide rates. The analysis shows that models with very high predictive power in the largest metropolitan areas have much less success in accounting for homicide differences in the most rural areas.