Analysis of influencing factors of CO2 emissions in Xinjiang under the context of different policies

•The impact factors of CO2 emissions were easily impacted by policy adjustments.•Economy has replaced energy intensity has become the most important factor.•CO2 emissions will increase by leaps and bounds ahead of economic growth. This study aims to understand the economic and social factors that have impacted CO2 emissions under the context of different policies. The results will aid in developing targeted policies for reducing CO2 emissions. Based on time sequence data from 1958 to 2010 in Xinjiang, a STIRPAT model was used for the empirical analysis of the impact of social and economic development on CO2 emissions in Xinjiang considering the context of different polices. Furthermore, this study provided a projection of CO2 emissions in the year 2015 in Xinjiang. The results were as follows: (1) the impact of various factors on CO2 emissions is subject to policy adjustments. The increasing degree of the “opening up”, GDP per capita has replaced energy intensity as the main factor that drives up CO2 emissions. (2) Under the current level of technology, there will be a substantial increase in CO2 emissions in Xinjiang during the process of achieving the social and economic development goals outlined in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, and CO2 emissions will increase by leaps and bounds ahead of economic growth.