The rebound effect for heavy industry: Empirical evidence from China

Energy efficiency improvement will reduce the effective price of energy services, and hence at least partially mitigate original expected energy conservation. Therefore, the magnitude of rebound effect is important for the design and timing of an effective energy conservation policy. Under the framework of translog cost share equations, we estimates the direct rebound effect for heavy industry in China for the first time by conducting an empirical research on the relationship between the direct rebound effect and the ease with which energy services can substitute for other inputs. Additionally, asymmetric price responses are specified in the model for the rebound effect estimation. Empirical results in our paper indicate that the rebound effect for heavy industry in China is about 74.3%. This reveals that energy efficiency improvement can save energy to a certain degree since the rebound effect is less than 100% (“back-fire”), but most of the expected reduction in heavy industry energy consumption is mitigated. These findings prove that energy pricing reforms and energy taxes should be further implemented to achieve effective energy conservation in China’s 12th Five Years Plan. •Heavy industry is energy intensive and accounts for over 60% of China’s energy consumption.•Direct rebound effect for heavy industry in China is estimated for the first time.•Asymmetric price responses are specified in the model for the direct rebound effect estimation.•Finding the existence of direct rebound effect in China’s heavy industry with a magnitude of 74.3%.•Proving that energy pricing reforms and energy taxes should be further implemented.