Numerical simulations of sea-breeze circulations over Northwest Hawaii

Sea-breeze cases during 23–28 June 1978 over northwest Hawaii are simulated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Mesoscale Spectral Model (MSM) coupled with an advanced Land Surface Model (LSM) with 3-km horizontal resolution. Subjective analyses show that except for 27 June, the MSM–LSM-predicted onset time, duration, and vertical extent of the sea breezes agree well with observations. The largest mean absolute errors for surface air temperature occur at the coastal stations under strong trade wind conditions (e.g., 23 and 27 June). The model-simulated rainfall distribution in association with sea-breeze fronts is consistent with observations. Sensitivity tests demonstrate the modulation of sea-breeze behavior by surface properties. High-resolution (1 km) MSM–LSM simulations for 23 and 27 June show improvements over the 3-km MSM–LSM in reproducing the observed sea breezes through a better representation of local terrain and a better simulation of orographically enhanced trades channeling through the Waimea Saddle. Deficiencies noted in the model simulations include 1) sea-breeze speeds are more than 2–3 m s−1 weaker than observations, and 2) horizontal penetration of sea breezes is generally overestimated. These deficiencies in the model simulations are primarily related to two factors: one is the underestimation of the trade wind speeds in the initialization from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data that is favoring the farther penetration of the sea breezes, and the other is the uncertainties in the thermal properties of the lava rocks that affect the surface temperature and the sea-breeze speed.