El Niño–Southern Oscillation–Driven Rainfall Variability and Delayed Density Dependence Cause Rodent Outbreaks in Western South America: Linking Demography and Population Dynamics

It is well known that some rodent populations display dramatic density fluctuations in semiarid regions of western South America after the unusual rainfall levels associated with El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO) disturbances. These correlated phenomena have led some ecologists to believe that rodent outbreaks are determined solely by density‐independent factors (e.g., rainfall regime). However, demographic studies have detected strong delayed density‐dependent effects in one of the most irruptive rodent species, the leaf‐eared mousePhyllotis darwini. We tested the effects of rainfall and delayed density‐dependent factors by constructing a structured model based on demographic data estimated from a capture‐mark‐recapture study of this species in Chile. A model including both rainfall and delayed density‐dependent effects predicts the observed population dynamics rather accurately over a 10‐yr period. Interestingly, small changes in model parameters result in large changes in model dynamics, which strongly suggests that local variations in demographic features are important in explaining the asynchronous pattern in outbreak occurrences. These findings suggest that inextricably intertwined endogenous and exogenous forces cause rodent outbreaks in western South America. The former are characterized by delayed nonlinear feedbacks, whereas the latter are characterized by the positive effects of the El Niño phases and the negative effects of the La Niña phases of the ENSO disturbance.