Validating the usefulness of examiners’ forward citations from the viewpoint of applicants’ self-selection during the patent application procedure

In this study, we validated the usefulness of examiners’ forward citations, especially from the viewpoint of the applicants’ self-selection (ASS) decisions during the patent application procedure. We believe that the ASS in an early stage would be decided by a potential-value comparison among patent applications. We focused on six self-selection decision points of the applicants: whether to file patent applications in foreign countries, request for examination, request for accelerated examination, reply to a notification of reasons for refusal, appeal after receiving a decision of refusal, and register after receiving a decision to grant a patent as patent value parameters. We found that application groups that selected “Yes” have a significantly larger number of examiners’ forward citations than groups that selected “No” at all decision points. In addition, we confirmed that applications that were finally granted and those that were renewed for a full term after grant have a significantly large number of examiners’ forward citations. We concluded that the number of examiners’ forward citations would be a useful indicator of the potential value of patent applications in macroscopic analysis.