Integration of gene mutations in risk prognostication for patients receiving first-line immunochemotherapy for follicular lymphoma: a retrospective analysis of a prospective clinical trial and validation in a population-based registry

Summary Background Follicular lymphoma is a clinically and genetically heterogeneous disease, but the prognostic value of somatic mutations has not been systematically assessed. We aimed to improve risk stratification of patients receiving first-line immunochemotherapy by integrating gene mutations into a prognostic model. Methods We did DNA deep sequencing to retrospectively analyse the mutation status of 74 genes in 151 follicular lymphoma biopsy specimens that were obtained from patients within 1 year before beginning immunochemotherapy consisting of rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone (R-CHOP). These patients were recruited between May 4, 2000, and Oct 20, 2010, as part of a phase 3 trial (GLSG2000). Eligible patients had symptomatic, advanced stage follicular lymphoma and were previously untreated. The primary endpoints were failure-free survival (defined as less than a partial remission at the end of induction, relapse, progression, or death) and overall survival calculated from date of treatment initiation. Median follow-up was 7·7 years (IQR 5·5–9·3). Mutations and clinical factors were incorporated into a risk model for failure-free survival using multivariable L1-penalised Cox regression. We validated the risk model in an independent population-based cohort of 107 patients with symptomatic follicular lymphoma considered ineligible for curative irradiation. Pretreatment biopsies were taken between Feb 24, 2004, and Nov 24, 2009, within 1 year before beginning first-line immunochemotherapy consisting of rituximab, cyclophosphamide, vincristine, and prednisone (R-CVP). Median follow-up was 6·7 years (IQR 5·7–7·6). Findings We established a clinicogenetic risk model (termed m7-FLIPI) that included the mutation status of seven genes ( EZH2, ARID1A, MEF2B, EP300, FOXO1, CREBBP , and CARD11 ), the Follicular Lymphoma International Prognostic Index (FLIPI), and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status. In the training cohort, m7-FLIPI defined a high-risk group (28%, 43/151) with 5-year failure-free survival of 38·29% (95% CI 25·31–57·95) versus 77·21% (95% CI 69·21–86·14) for the low-risk group (hazard ratio [HR] 4·14, 95% CI 2·47–6·93; p