Fire history in northern Patagonia: the roles of humans and climatic variation

The effects of humans and climatic variation on fire history in northern Patagonia, Argentina, were examined by dating fire scars on 458 trees at 21 sites in rain forests of Fitzroya cupressoides and xeric woodlands of Austrocedrus chilensis from 39⚬to 43⚬S latitude. Climatic variation associated with fires was analyzed on the basis of 20th-century observational records and tree ring proxy records of climatic variation since approximately AD 1500. In the Austrocedrus woodlands, fire frequency increases after about 1850, coincident with greater use of the area by Native American hunters. Increased burning, particularly in the zone of more mesic forests, is also strongly associated with forest clearing by European settlers from about 1880 to the early 1900s. The marked decline in fire frequency during the 20th century coincides with both the demise of Native American hunters in the 1890s and increasingly effective fire exclusion. Strong synchroneity in the years of widespread fire at sample sites dispersed over a north-south distance of ∼400 km indicates a strong climatic influence on fire occurrence at an annual scale. Tree ring reconstructions of regional precipitation and temperature show a steeply declining influence of climatic variability on fire occurrence from annual to multidecadal scales. It is the interannual variability in climate, rather than variations in average climatic conditions over longer periods, that strongly influences fire regimes in northern Patagonia. Although climatic variability overrides human influences on fire regimes at an interannual scale, human activity is an equally important determinant of fire frequency at multidecadal scales. Climatic conditions conducive to widespread fire in both xeric Austrocedrus woodlands and Fitzroya rain forests are typical of the late stages of La Nina (cold phase of the Southern Oscillation) events, as indicated by trends in the Southern Oscillation Index and eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures during the 1-2 years before and after fire event years. Years of extreme fire occurrence are associated both with dry winter-springs of La Nina events and with the warm summers following El Nino events. Years in which the southeast Pacific subtropical anticyclone is intense and located farther south than normal are years of enhanced drought and fire. Similarly, years of widespread fire in northern Patagonia are associated with variations in mean sea level atmospheric pressure at about 50⚬-6