Solar radiation forecasting in the short- and medium-term under all sky conditions

Meteorological conditions are decisive in solar plant management and electricity generation. Any increases or decreases in solar radiation mean a plant has to adapt its operation method to the climatological phenomena. An unexpected atmospheric change can provoke a range of problems related to various solar plant components affecting the electricity generation system and, in consequence, causing alterations in the electricity grid. Therefore, predicting atmospheric features is key to managing solar plants and is therefore necessary for correct electrical grid management. Accordingly, a solar radiation forecast model is presented, where the three solar components (beam, diffuse and global) are predicted over the short- and medium-term (up to three hours) for all sky conditions, demonstrating its potential as a useful application in decision-making processes at solar power plants. •A solar radiation forecasting has been proposed over the short- and medium-term.•The three radiation components have been predicted under all sky conditions.•Cloud motion and the Heliosat-2 model are combined for predicting solar radiation.•Results have been presented for cloudless, partially-cloudy and overcast conditions.•For beam and global radiation, the nRMSE value is lower than 10% under clear skies.