Validation of the "Metroticket" model in a cohort of patients transplanted for hepatocellular carcinoma in southern Brazil

This retrospective study evaluated the ability of the Metroticket model to predict five‐yr post‐transplant survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) based only on explant data. Five‐yr survival after transplant was estimated using the Metroticket Calculator, and observed survival was calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method. Metroticket‐predicted survival was compared between deceased and surviving patients using the Mann–Whitney test. The accuracy of Metroticket estimates in discriminating between these two patient groups was assessed using the c‐statistic. Median patient age (n = 109) was 55.7 yr, and 72.5% of the sample were men. Metroticket‐predicted and observed post‐transplant survival at five yr was 71.1% and 58.7%, respectively. Predictions were calculated using the explant data of the 64 survivors and 45 deceased patients. Median five‐yr survival was 72.9% in the former and 69.7% in the latter. The c‐statistic of the Metroticket model for distinguishing surviving from deceased patients was 0.55. In this cohort, the Metroticket model was unable to accurately predict five‐yr post‐transplant survival based only on explant data.