Intermodel variations in projected precipitation change over the North Atlantic: Sea surface temperature effect

Intermodel variations in future precipitation projection in the North Atlantic are studied using 23 state‐of‐art models from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Model uncertainty in annual mean rainfall change is locally enhanced along the Gulf Stream. The moisture budget analysis reveals that much of the model uncertainty in rainfall change can be traced back to the discrepancies in surface evaporation change and transient eddy effect among models. Results of the intermodel Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis show that intermodel variations in local sea surface temperature (SST) pattern exert a strong control over the spread of rainfall projection among models through the modulation of evaporation change. The first three SVD modes explain more than 60% of the intermodel variance of rainfall projection and show distinct SST patterns with mode water‐induced banded structures, reduced subpolar warming due to ocean dynamical cooling, and the Gulf Stream shift, respectively. Key Points Intermodel diversity of rainfall projection over the North Atlantic is studied Evaporation and transient eddy effect are major sources of model uncertainty SST change is important in the intermodel variability of rainfall projection