Population-based analysis of the impact and generalizability of the NSABP-B24 study on endocrine therapy for patients with ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast

In 1999, the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project (NSABP)-B24 trial demonstrated that tamoxifen reduced relapse risk in women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) treated with breast-conserving surgery (BCS) and radiotherapy (RT). In 2002, Allred's subgroup analysis showed that tamoxifen mainly benefitted estrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease. This study evaluates the impact and generalizability of these trial findings at the population level. From 1989 to 2009, 2061 women with DCIS underwent BCS + RT in British Columbia. The following cohorts were analyzed: (1) pre-NSABP-B24 era (1989-1998, N = 417); (2) post-NSABP-B24 era (2000-2009, N = 1548). Cohort 2 was further divided into pre- and post-Allred eras. Endocrine therapy (ET) was used in 404/2061 (20%) patients. Median age of patients treated with compared with without ET, was 53 versus 57 years, (P < 0.0005). One of 417 (0.2%) versus 399/1548 (26%) patients took ET before versus after NSABP-B24. Among the post-Allred era cohort treated with ET (N = 227), tumors were ER-positive in 65%, ER-negative in 1%, and ER-unknown in 33%; whereas of those treated without ET (N = 801), ER was positive in 43%, negative in 15%, and unknown in 42% (P < 0.0005). On multivariable analysis of the post-NSABP-B24 era, ET was associated with improved event-free survival (EFS) (hazard ratio 0.6; P = 0.02); 5-year EFS were 96.9% with ET versus 94.5% without ET. ET use in DCIS patients treated with BCS + RT increased significantly after the NSABP-B24 study. ER+ disease and younger age were associated with increased ET use. ET was associated with improved EFS, confirming the generalizability of trial data at a population level.