Futurescapes: expectations in Europe for relative effectiveness evidence for drugs in 2020

Explore key factors influencing future expectations for the production of evidence of relative effectiveness (RE) for drugs in Europe in 2020; construct three plausible future scenarios for RE evidence generation. Semi-structured key informant interviews and three rounds of modified Delphi to gather expert perspectives and develop future scenarios. Most influential factors were degree of regulator use of postmarketing authorization (postlaunch) efficacy studies and adaptive licensing; degree of pan-European health technology assessment body coordination in reviewing prelaunch evidence and demanding postlaunch studies; the nature of regulator - health technology assessment body interaction. The most likely scenario entailed some change with postlaunch regulatory studies driving the likely nature of RE evidence generated.