Development of a sleeve gastrectomy risk calculator

Abstract Background Laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG) is rapidly gaining popularity. Estimating the risk of postoperative adverse events can improve surgical decision-making and informed patient consent. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a risk prediction model for early postoperative morbidity and mortality after LSG. Methods Cases of primary LSG in the American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) data set at year 2012 (n = 5871) and 2011 (n = 3130) were identified to develop and examine the validity of model. The composite primary outcome was defined as presence of any of 14 serious adverse events within the 30-days after LSG. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed and a risk calculator was created to predict the primary outcome. Results Thirty-day postoperative mortality and composite adverse events rates of 5871 LSG cases were .05% and 2.4%, respectively. Of the 52 examined baseline variables, the final model contained history of congestive heart failure (odds ratio [OR] 6.23; 95% CI 1.25–31.07), chronic steroid use (OR 5.00; 95% CI 2.06–12.15), male sex (OR 1.68; 95% CI 1.03–2.72), diabetes (OR 1.62; 95% CI 1.07–2.48), preoperative serum total bilirubin level (OR 1.57; 95% CI 1.11–2.22), body mass index (OR 1.03; 95% CI 1.01–1.05), and preoperative hematocrit level (OR .95; 95% CI .89–1.00). The risk model was then validated with the 2011 data set and was used to create an online risk calculator with a relatively good accuracy (c-statistic .682). Conclusions This risk assessment scoring system, which specifically estimates serious adverse events after LSG, can contribute to surgical decision-making, informed patient consent, and prediction of surgical risk for patients and referring physicians.