Stream water temperature prediction based on Gaussian process regression

•The method for stream water temperature prediction is proposed.•The method is based on Gaussian process regression model.•Input variable selection is based on mutual information. The prediction of stream water temperature presents an interesting topic since the water temperature has a significant ecological and economical role, such as in species distribution, fishery, industry and agriculture water exploitation. The prediction of stream water temperature is usually based on appropriate mathematical model and measurements of different atmospheric factors. In this paper, a probabilistic approach to daily mean water temperature prediction is proposed. The resulting model is a combination of two Gaussian process regression models where the first model describes the long-term component of water temperature and the other model describes the short-term variations in water temperature. The proposed approach is developed even further by modeling the short-term variations with multiple Gaussian process regression models instead with a single one. Apart from that, variable selection procedure based on mutual information is presented which is suitable for input variable selection when nonlinear models for stream water prediction are developed. The proposed approach is compared with traditional modeling approaches on the measurements obtained on the Drava river in Croatia. The presented methodology can be used as a basis of the predictive tools for water resource managers.