Past and future spatiotemporal changes in evapotranspiration and effective moisture on the Tibetan Plateau

Observed evaporative demand has decreased worldwide during the past several decades. This trend is also noted on the Tibetan Plateau, a region that is particularly sensitive to climate change. However, patterns and trends of evapotranspiration and their relationship to drought stress on the Tibetan Plateau are complex and poorly understood. Here, we analyze spatiotemporal changes in evapotranspiration and effective moisture (defined as the ratio of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) to reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo)) based on the modified Lund‐Potsdam‐Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ). Climate data from 80 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau were compiled for the period 1981–2010 and future climate projections were generated by a regional climate model through the 21st century. The results show regional trends towards decreasing ETo and statistically significant increases in ETa (p