Evaluation of the impact of climatic trends and variability in rice–wheat system productivity using Cropping System Model DSSAT over the Indo-Gangetic Plains of India

[Display omitted] ► No significant change in rainfall over the years in both the rice and the wheat growing seasons. ► Rice yields decreased from the west to east IGP. ► Wheat yields appeared to be increasing throughout the IGP. ► Good agreement between observed and simulated rice and wheat yields. Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP), accountable for the region's food security, has undergone climatic fluctuations and variability during the last three decades under the influence of natural or fast trend of population growth, urbanization and industrial development. The objective of this study is to understand the trends of climatic variables over 5 selected locations during the last 25–30 years and the variability of recorded and simulated rice–wheat system yield using DSSAT-CSMv4.5. There was no significant change in rainfall over the years in both the rice and the wheat growing seasons at all the sites except Hisar. The annual change in the rainfall trend was −28.9mm/year (P