Was overfishing of predatory fish responsible for a lobster-induced regime shift in the Benguela?

•We model a kelp ecosystem that has undergone a regime shift.•We use the model to test scenarios under current and ‘pristine’ predator densities.•If predatory fish were at ‘pristine’ levels, a regime shift may have been prevented.•Fishing at MSY levels may have averted a regime shift. The top-down effects of predators have been demonstrated for terrestrial, freshwater and marine systems and their removal can cause a shift in ecosystem state. In many cases, the depletion of top-predators occurred long before humans began monitoring these systems, but models can elucidate likely ecosystem changes. In this paper we use a multispecies model to demonstrate that the abundance of predators can induce different ecosystem states, emphasising the importance of sustainable harvesting. Our model is founded on empirical data documenting a regime-shift that took place in the kelp-forest ecosystem along the south-west coast of South Africa following an ‘invasion’ by the West Coast rock lobster Jasus lalandii in the early 1990s. Formerly dominated by herbivores and encrusting corallines, the ecosystem became dominated by lobsters and macroalgae. A combination of illegal fishing of abalone Haliotis midae and the lobster-induced extermination of the urchin Parechinus angulosus (which shelters juvenile abalone) depleted abalone stocks severely. In this currently over-fished ecosystem where predators of lobsters are scarce, the regime-shift appears irreversible. Using an intermediate complexity model of lobster, urchin and abalone relationships, we simulated the effects of predatory fish at various population levels on the course of development of the currently lobster-dominated system. Our results indicate that current levels of fish biomass (